Mobile Web - Fad or Trend? You Decide

The mobile Web grew 110 percent in the U.S. last year and 148 percent worldwide as measured by growth in pageviews, according to a new Quantcast Mobile Trends report.

It's an easy call to predict that mobile web usage will continue to grow in 2010 and beyond but the big questions are by how much? And is it worth businesses clicking onto the trend or dismissing it as a fad and hoping that it will fade away like Pogs eventually did.

The analysis of long-term success for web mobile is based on the classic marketing distinction between a “trend” and “fad.”

What does a trend look like?

Essentially, anything that has staying power is a trend, it may start off small but a trend will grow and develop, it won't happen overnight but after a while you'll see it all over the place. Trends have deep cultural roots, they evolve but never stop growing. Increasing usage of the Internet is a trend, couples having their first child after 30 is a trend, exercise and healthy living is a trend.

A fad is the exact opposite.

Fads represent limited potential rather than unlimited opportunities. Fads come and go, they may enjoy brief popularity before quickly fading into near oblivion. For example in hairdressing terms a bob is a trend, a mullet was a fad. Fads have at most 1-2 years of popularity if that, and so have to be exploited quickly and as frequently as possible. Think Teletubbies, girl power, Tamagotchi and ringtones. A fad won't last and will weaken as soon as they become mainstream.

The boundary between mobile and PC is blurring and web access on the go will be pushed to new levels in the future.
The market for mobile applications, or apps, will become "as big as the internet", peaking at 10 million apps by 2020.

2020 seems like a long time away - what about now in 2010?

Apps will become more personal and practical as their numbers grow,
they will peak at around 100,000 by the end of the year. That will be a tipping point and after that there will be a gradual fall in the rate of development.
Within ten years mobile apps will be as popular as websites are today with consumers and, as accessible with prices for apps reducing year on year.

A developing market.

While developers rush to cash in on this growing marketplace, the warnings are that many are simply doomed to fail. The reality is that this space is only so big and only able to support so many people. The ratio of those developers who will fail is about 90%; they will simply not make a return on their investment. Unfortunately the overhype that goes with [Apple's] App Store is what has driven so many to rush to develop for the market. It is fashionable to do apps and every media outlet tells you apps are cool, but do they really pay?


What are the true economics of mobile apps?

Well they are a very different story and the days of the app store are doomed according to Google. The App Store is flawed with lack of relevance. Who really wants an app where a candle flickers in different colours. Users will need to see more relevant applications that will enrich your life in some way, image sharing, social networking or quicker business communication.

To date, Apple runs the most popular application store with over 65,000 applications. Last week it notched up another milestone with 1.5 billion downloads. But the popularity of Apple's App store is also its Achilles heel because it caters to the "one hit wonder" model. The key for the future is making sure that the app fits your business and their users as a single entity.

Is this trend right for you and your business?

To test if you are on-trend (or if it's right for you and your business), apply the Rule of Three. Aristotle wrote about it in his book Rhetoric. Put simply it is that people tend to remember 3 things, it's a simple rule but it works. So ask yourself do three or more trends apply, otherwise you may be picking up on a fad. Indeed it can be as simple as a Google search to demonstrate that this trend could be relevant to your business.

In Conclusion:

While Web innovation is unpredictable, what is clear is that businesses who want to stay in the marketplace cannot afford to ignore the mobile market in it's entirety. Mobile Web may not be applicable to every business model but certain elements will increase profitability and gain competitive advantages IF it can offer their consumers these services first for example mobile payment solutions, real-time technology and GPS solutions to put shoppers in touch with retailers faster.

Mobile internet users reached a critical mass this year, offering a large and diverse enough base of users to support large-scale mobile marketing efforts and it can only get bigger and better.

Send us your comments about Mobile Web we'd love to hear what you think.

E: michelle@yourwebstar.co.uk
T: 01625 821072
M: 07784 128016

Resources:

Quantcast mobile trends report 2009:
Maggie Shiels - Technology reporter, BBC News, Silicon Valley
BBC News - Technology